Overnight US Market: Tech Stocks Under Pressure, Capital Rotates to Defensive Sectors
On August 13 US Eastern Time, the three major US stock indices showed a clear divergence, reflecting market re-pricing of the AI hype retreat and defensive assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.32%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.15%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.48% due to weak tech stocks. Among the tech giants, performance was mixed: Nvidia (NVDA) fell 1.25% due to adjusted expectations for AI computing demand, while Microsoft (MSFT) rose 0.32% on stable cloud business growth; Apple (AAPL) fell 0.8% due to sales pressure in Greater China, while Tesla (TSLA) rose 1.2% despite the Q2 delivery volume hitting a new high.
In terms of capital flow, high-valued tech stocks continued to be sold off, with the S&P 500 Tech Sector Index falling 0.6%, while defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples became the first choice for capital hedging, with the S&P 500 Defensive Sector Index rising 0.42%. This rotation is driven by both structural adjustments from the AI construction phase to the application phase and short-term factors such as rising inflation pressure cooling risk appetite.
US Treasury Market: Yield Curve Steepens, Rate Cut Expectations Stir Again
In the US Treasury market, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.25%, while the 2-year yield remained around 4.8%, further steepening the yield curve. This change was mainly affected by the US July CPI data exceeding expectations—core CPI annual rate rose 0.3%, higher than the market's expected 0.2%, and unexpected inflation pressure reduced the Fed's September rate cut expectations from 70% to 55%. Although Fed Chairman Powell emphasized in recent remarks that "will consider rate cuts carefully," the strong performance of inflation data still keeps the market cautious about monetary policy.
Short-term yield rises pushed the US Dollar Index higher, closing at 104.52, a new high in nearly two weeks, which put pressure on dollar-denominated commodities, but gold benefited from hedging demand, with prices reaching $1980/ounce, a new annual high.
Commodities: Soaring Oil Prices Suppress Risk Appetite, Gold Continues to Strengthen
In the commodities market, WTI crude oil prices soared to $82.5/barrel due to rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, a new high in nearly three months. Rising oil prices exacerbated market concerns about inflation and also suppressed the performance of risk assets—the energy sector index fell 0.3%, while gold benefited from hedging demand, with prices reaching $1980/ounce, a new annual high.
In addition, copper prices fell 0.5% due to rising uncertainty in global economic prospects, reflecting weak industrial demand; in agricultural products, corn prices rose 0.8% due to US drought expectations, while soybeans fell 0.3% due to Brazil's harvest expectations.
Asia-Pacific Futures Indicate: FTSE A50 Night Session Stabilizes, Hang Seng Night Futures Diverge
In Asia-Pacific futures, the FTSE China A50 Index night session rose 0.21%, stabilizing above the 14,900-point mark, indicating that the mainland market digested overnight US market volatility relatively smoothly. The Hang Seng Index night futures fell 0.31% due to weak Chinese concept stocks, but the new energy vehicle sector performed strongly, driving XPeng (XPEV), Li Auto (LI) and other stocks to rise 1.5% against the trend.
The Nikkei 225 Index night futures fell 0.42% due to yen depreciation and weak tech stocks, while the KOSPI Index night futures fell 0.12%. The divergence in Asian markets reflects the different sensitivities of regional economies to global risks—mainland markets are more supported by policies, while Hong Kong markets are more affected by fluctuations in Chinese concept stocks.
Key Economic Data and Industry Events of the Day
- US July CPI Data: Core CPI annual rate rose 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, unexpected inflation pressure hit Fed rate cut expectations, and the market remains cautious about monetary policy.
- Tesla Q2 Earnings: Deliveries reached 1.45 million, a new high, but gross margin fell from 25.1% to 22.3%, and the stock fell 2.1% in after-hours trading, affecting the overall sentiment of the new energy vehicle sector.
- Nvidia Blackwell Ultra Mass Production: Early mass production ignited the AI computing arms race, TSMC's 3nm capacity is fully loaded, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand surged, and the semiconductor sector is internally divergent—equipment suppliers such as ASML rose 0.8%, while storage giants such as Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) fell 1.2%.
- Apple Q3 Earnings Preview: Sales in Greater China are under pressure, but AI investment has become a key variable for profit, and the market is concerned about its AI strategy progress, with Apple stock falling 0.7% in after-hours trading.
- US Initial Jobless Claims Data: Initial jobless claims were 228,000, higher than the expected 220,000, the labor market cooled moderately, but did not meet the "sufficient conditions" for the Fed to cut rates.
Market Interpretation: Logic Behind Capital Rotation and Asia-Pacific Layout Strategies
The capital rotation in overnight US stocks is based on the dual logic of "AI hype retreat" and "defensive assets favored." On the one hand, AI computing demand has shifted from the "construction phase" to the "application phase," and the capital expenditure growth of cloud giants has slowed, putting pressure on the AI hardware sector—although Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra mass production has ignited the arms race, it is difficult to make up for the gap in cloud giants' capital expenditure decline in the short term; on the other hand, rising inflation and geopolitical risks make investors more inclined to choose defensive sectors with stable cash flow and low volatility, such as utilities and consumer staples.
For the Asia-Pacific market, the stability of the FTSE A50 night session shows that the mainland market's ability to adapt to US market volatility has improved, while the divergence of the Hang Seng night futures reflects the internal differentiation of Chinese concept stocks—the new energy vehicle sector strengthened due to Tesla's bright earnings report, but tech stocks are under pressure due to the AI retreat. This trend suggests that investors should focus on "structural opportunities" rather than "full allocation" in the Asia-Pacific market layout.
Asia-Pacific Market Layout Strategy Recommendations
- Defensive Sectors: Appropriately increase the allocation of defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples, which are less affected by the economic cycle and can provide stable cash flow. For example, mainland market stocks such as China Resources Power (00836.HK), Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK) have outperformed the market recently.
- New Energy Vehicle Sector: Although Tesla's gross margin is under pressure, the global new energy vehicle penetration rate is still on the rise, and the Asian supply chain (such as batteries, components) still has structural opportunities. You can pay attention to stocks such as XPeng, Li Auto, or Asian battery suppliers such as CATL (300750.SZ).
- Semiconductor Equipment Chain: Nvidia Blackwell Ultra mass production has driven HBM demand to surge, TSMC's 3nm capacity is fully loaded, and semiconductor equipment suppliers such as ASML, Tokyo Electron (8035.T) still have room to rise, but note the profit pressure of storage giants.
- Bond Market: Fluctuations in US Treasury yields provide opportunities for bond investors, short-term bonds are more attractive due to rising yields, and you can consider allocating US Treasury ETFs (such as SHY) or Asian high-yield bonds.
Risk Warning
The main risks in the current market are "unexpected inflation" and "geopolitical risks": if the US August CPI data is still higher than expected, the Fed's rate cut expectations may be further delayed, leading to rising US Treasury yields and suppressing risk assets; if Middle East geopolitical risks escalate, oil prices may rise further, exacerbating inflation pressure. In addition, the structural adjustment of AI computing demand may lead to continued differentiation of tech stocks, and investors need to choose stocks carefully.
Overall, the capital rotation in overnight US stocks reflects the market's re-balancing of "stability" and "growth," and the opening sentiment of the Asia-Pacific market will be affected by this. Investors need to pay attention to the opening performance of Asia-Pacific futures on the day, as well as key events such as US August retail sales data and Fed official remarks, and adjust their layout strategies in a timely manner.
