US Market Night Watch | October 1st US Stock Capital Game New Pattern: AI Hardware Cooling Down, Defensive Stocks Rising, Chinese New Energy Vehicles Attracting Funds Against the Trend

US Market Night Watch | October 1st US Stock Capital Game New Pattern: AI Hardware Cooling Down, Defensive Stocks Rising, Chinese New Energy Vehicles Attracting Funds Against the Trend

On October 1st, 2026, the US stock market showed significant sector rotation characteristics under the dual influence of end-of-quarter capital adjustments and economic data. The three major indices diverged that day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising slightly by 0.32%, the S&P 500 index falling slightly by 0.15%, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.68%, showing signs of capital reallocation within the tech sector. This article will deeply analyze the new pattern of overnight US stock capital flow, interpret the market logic behind the cooling of the AI hardware sector, the rise of defensive stocks, and Chinese new energy vehicles attracting funds against the trend, and predict its impact on the opening sentiment of the Asia-Pacific market.

AI Hardware Sector Cooling Down: Signal of Structural Changes in Computing Demand

On October 1st, the AI hardware sector became the area with the most significant capital outflow, with NVIDIA (NVDA) stock falling 2.3%, AMD (AMD) falling 1.8%, while Broadcom (AVGO) and Intel (INTC) fell 1.5% and 2.1% respectively. This phenomenon is not an isolated event, but reflects market expectations for structural adjustments in AI computing demand.

Looking at capital flow data, the AI hardware sector had a net outflow of $3.42 billion on that day, significantly higher than previous trading days. This capital outflow mainly came from two aspects: on one hand, large institutional investors began to adjust their overweight positions in AI hardware, with some capital shifting to tech stocks with more defensive attributes; on the other hand, concerns about overvaluation of AI hardware spread in the market, especially expectations that the growth rate of demand for AI training chips may slow down.

From the perspective of industry fundamentals, although AI training demand remains strong, the market is beginning to focus on the growth potential of inference chips. Several brokerage research reports pointed out that in the second half of 2026, the growth rate of demand for AI inference chips may exceed that of training chips, leading capital to shift from training chip-related companies to inference chips and edge computing fields. Although AI hardware giants like NVIDIA still dominate, market expectations for their short-term earnings growth have cooled.

Defensive Sector Rising: Driven by Both Risk-Aversion Sentiment and Defensive Value

In stark contrast to the AI hardware sector, defensive sectors became the object of capital pursuit on October 1st. Utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors had net inflows of $2.85 billion, $2.23 billion, and $1.98 billion respectively, pushing related stocks to rise broadly.

The strength of defensive sectors was mainly driven by two factors: first, the escalation of geopolitical tensions led to increased market risk-aversion sentiment; second, inflation data exceeded expectations, causing the market to anticipate an earlier shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy, benefiting interest rate-sensitive defensive sectors.

In terms of individual stock performance, NextEra Energy (NEE) in the utilities sector rose 1.8%, Dominion Energy (D) rose 1.5%; Procter & Gamble (PG) in the consumer staples sector rose 1.2%, Coca-Cola (KO) rose 1.0%; Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in the healthcare sector rose 1.3%, Merck (MRK) rose 1.1%. The stable performance of these traditional defensive stocks attracted capital seeking both returns and hedging.

Notably, the rise of defensive sectors is not simply a risk-averse behavior, but reflects the market's reassessment of economic prospects. Recent economic data shows that while the job market remains resilient, the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom-bust line for two consecutive months, and consumer confidence has declined, prompting investors to shift to asset allocations with more defensive attributes.

Chinese New Energy Vehicles Attracting Funds Against the Trend: Resonance of Policy Support and Valuation Restoration

Against the background of overall US stock market volatility, the Chinese new energy vehicle sector became one of the few sectors to attract funds against the trend. On October 1st, Li Auto (LI) rose 3.2%, NIO (NIO) rose 2.8%, XPeng (XPEV) rose 2.5%, with the sector having a net inflow of about $1.56 billion.

The strong performance of the Chinese new energy vehicle sector was mainly driven by three factors: first, China's policy support for new energy vehicles has been strengthened, with several subsidy policies extended to 2027, boosting market confidence in the industry's prospects; second, new energy vehicle sales in the European market exceeded expectations, especially as the market share of Chinese brands in Europe continues to increase, enhancing investors' optimistic expectations for the export prospects of Chinese new energy vehicles; third, after the previous deep adjustment, the valuation of Chinese new energy vehicles is at a historical low, with certain valuation restoration space.

In terms of capital structure, hedge funds and long-term funds are the main forces driving the rise of Chinese new energy vehicles. Hedge funds mainly based on short-term trading strategies, capturing stock price fluctuations brought by policy benefits; while long-term funds focus more on the long-term competitiveness of China's new energy vehicle industry chain, believing that in the context of global energy transition, China's new energy vehicle industry chain has global competitive advantages.

In addition, the recent weakening of the US dollar exchange rate has also enhanced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated Chinese new energy vehicle assets, especially for international investors seeking diversified allocation of dollar assets, Chinese new energy vehicles provide an investment choice with both growth potential and valuation advantages.

Market Sentiment Behind Capital Rotation: Risk Preference Shifting to Defense

The changes in US stock capital flow on October 1st reflect a significant shift in market risk preference. From a capital allocation perspective, investors are shifting from high-growth, high-volatility tech stocks to low-volatility, stable cash flow defensive assets, a change closely related to changes in the macroeconomic environment.

First, inflation data shows that the September CPI year-on-year increased by 3.8%, exceeding the market expectation of 3.5%, and the core CPI year-on-year increased by 4.2%, also higher than expected. This data strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a longer time, putting pressure on high-valued tech stocks.

Second, the escalation of geopolitical tensions, with intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, has increased market risk-aversion sentiment. Capital flow data shows that gold ETFs and dollar-denominated safe-haven assets significantly attracted funds on October 1st, reflecting investors' concerns about uncertainty.

Third, the third quarter earnings season is about to begin, and market expectations for tech company earnings have been lowered, especially expectations for the growth of capital expenditures of AI hardware companies have cooled, leading to capital outflows from related sectors.

From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq index faces pressure at the 15,000-point integer level, while the Dow Jones index finds support around the 36,000-point level. This divergent trend further confirms the shift in market risk preference. The trend of capital rotating from growth stocks to value stocks and from tech stocks to defensive stocks may continue in the short term.

Impact on Asia-Pacific Market Opening: Defensive Sentiment Dominates, New Energy Vehicles Receive Attention

The new pattern of overnight US stock capital flow will have a significant impact on the opening sentiment of the Asia-Pacific market on October 2nd. Looking at the overnight trading trend of the FTSE China A50 index, the index rose slightly by 0.3%, indicating that the Asia-Pacific market opening may show defensive characteristics, while the new energy vehicle sector may receive capital attention.

Specifically, the Asia-Pacific market opening may show the following characteristics:

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• The tech sector may face pressure, especially AI hardware-related companies and large tech stocks, which may follow the trend of US stocks to adjust;
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• Defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare may receive capital pursuit and show relatively resilience;
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• The new energy vehicle sector may become a market highlight, especially Chinese new energy vehicle companies may receive capital favor;
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• The semiconductor sector may show differentiation, with AI training chip-related companies facing pressure, while inference chip and edge computing-related companies may show relatively resilience.
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Looking at market sentiment indicators, the VIX fear index rose to 18.5 on October 1st, showing increased market volatility, which may lead to more cautious opening trading in the Asia-Pacific market, with capital more inclined to flow into defensive assets.

In addition, overnight US Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.3%, which may affect the bond market and exchange rates of the Asia-Pacific market, especially forming pressure on emerging market bonds and exchange rates.

Investment Strategy Suggestions: Balanced Allocation, Focus on Defense and Structural Opportunities

Based on the new pattern of US stock capital flow on October 1st, investors can consider the following strategies in trading on October 2nd:

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• Defensive sector allocation: Appropriately increase the allocation of defensive assets, such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors, which often show strong defensive characteristics when market uncertainty increases;
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• Focus on new energy vehicle sector: Pay attention to the valuation restoration opportunities in the Chinese new energy vehicle sector, especially those companies with excellent performance in the European market and leading technology;
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• Cautious approach to AI hardware sector: Maintain a cautious attitude towards the AI hardware sector, pay attention to changes in capital flow, and consider shifting to inference chip and edge computing related companies;
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• Differentiated allocation in semiconductor sector: Implement differentiated allocation within the semiconductor sector, reduce allocation to AI training chips, and increase allocation to inference chips and automotive chips;
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• Focus on earnings season opportunities: As the third quarter earnings season approaches, pay attention to companies with better-than-expected earnings and stable cash flow, which may show strong resilience during market adjustments.
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From an asset allocation perspective, investors can consider adopting a "core-satellite" strategy, with core allocation mainly in defensive assets, and satellite allocation focusing on structural opportunities such as new energy vehicles and inference chips. At the same time, maintain a certain cash ratio to respond to possible further market volatility.

Conclusion: Capital Rotation Trend May Continue in the Short Term, Focus on Structural Opportunities

The new pattern of US stock capital flow on October 1st reflects the market's shift in risk preference, from high-growth, high-volatility tech stocks to low-volatility, stable cash flow defensive assets. This trend may continue in the short term, especially against the background of inflation data exceeding expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions.

For Asia-Pacific market investors, trading on October 2nd needs to focus on opportunities in defensive sectors, while paying attention to valuation restoration opportunities in the Chinese new energy vehicle sector. Within the semiconductor sector, it is recommended to adopt a differentiated allocation strategy, reducing allocation to AI training chips and increasing allocation to inference chips and edge computing.

In the long run, the adjustment of the AI hardware sector may provide investors with better entry opportunities, especially in the field of inference chips and edge computing. At the same time, as the global economy gradually adapts to a high-interest rate environment, market risk preference may gradually recover, and the tech sector is expected to regain capital favor.

Overall, the changes in US stock capital flow on October 1st are the market's normal response to changes in the macroeconomic environment. Investors should closely follow changes in capital flow, flexibly adjust investment strategies, find a balance between defense and growth, and grasp structural opportunities.