US Market Night View | October 9: New Landscape of US Stock Capital Play: AI Hardware Bifurcation Intensifies, Defensive Stocks Continue to Absorb Capital, Chinese New Energy Vehicles Rise Against the Trend

In the US stock market trading on October 9, capital flow showed a distinct structural change, with significant divergence within the AI hardware sector, while defensive sectors continued to attract funds, and Chinese new energy stocks rose against the trend driven by earnings reports. This new pattern of capital allocation not only reflects the subtle shifts in market risk preferences but also provides investors with important clues for asset allocation in the next phase. ## US Market Performance: Searching for Direction Amid Volatility On October 9, the overall US stock market showed a volatile pattern with diverging trends among the major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.3%, performing relatively stable; the S&P 500 index increased slightly by 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 0.4%, indicating a trend of divergence within the technology sector. In terms of trading volume, the overall market was active, but capital flow clearly exhibited defensive characteristics. Market analysts point out that the performance of the US market in early October is closely related to seasonal factors. Historical data shows that October is often one of the months with higher volatility in US stocks, especially given the multiple uncertainties facing the global economy. Investors' risk appetite tends to be cautious, focusing more on defensive sectors with stable cash flows. ### AI Hardware Sector: Intensified Internal Differentiation Within the technology sector, AI-related hardware companies showed clear divergence. On one hand, companies focusing on inference chips and edge computing equipment received investor support, with their stock prices generally rising. On the other hand, companies focusing on training chips faced pressure from capital outflow, with their stock prices under pressure. This divergence mainly reflects the market's reassessment of the AI technology development path. As generative AI applications transition from the training stage to the inference stage, the market expects explosive growth in demand for inference chips. Simultaneously, the proliferation of edge computing equipment provides a new growth point for AI hardware. In contrast, the training chip market is nearing saturation, and intensifying competition is putting pressure on profit margins. Specifically, Nvidia (NVDA) stock rose by 2.3%, reflecting positive market views on its leading position in the inference chip field; while AMD (AMD) fell by 1.8%, as investors expressed concerns about its competitiveness in the high-end training chip market. Furthermore, Supermicrocomputers for AI servers (SMCI) surged by 4.5%, indicating the market's continued optimism for AI infrastructure development. ### Defensive Sectors: Continuously Attracting Capital In sharp contrast to the divergence in AI hardware, defensive sectors continued to attract capital, becoming the main highlight of the US market on October 9. Traditional defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare generally rose, with the utilities index leading the gains and rising by 1.2%. The strong performance of defensive sectors reflects changes in market risk preferences. Against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and uncertain economic growth prospects, investors are focusing more on assets with stable cash flows and lower volatility. Utility companies, due to their stable revenue models and relatively high dividend yields, are ideal choices for safe-haven funds. The healthcare sector also performed well, rising by 0.8%. Market analysts believe that the aging population trend and medical technology innovation provide long-term growth drivers for healthcare companies, giving them a relative advantage during periods of economic uncertainty. In the large-cap stocks, the new energy vehicle sector was a highlight on October 9th, showing a reversal with strength against the backdrop of a weak overall market. Ideal Auto (LI) and NIO saw their stock prices rise by 3.5% and 2.8%, respectively, indicating market optimism for the prospects of China's new energy vehicle industry. The strong performance of Chinese new energy vehicle companies was mainly driven by earnings data. Ideal Auto's latest quarterly report showed that deliveries exceeded market expectations, gross margins remained at a high level, and profitability continued to improve. NIO announced a strategic cooperation with a European automaker to jointly develop a new generation electric vehicle platform, which boosted market confidence in its future development. Furthermore, a series of policies recently introduced by the Chinese government supporting the new energy vehicle industry, including measures to extend new energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions and increase charging infrastructure construction, are supporting Chinese new energy stocks by boosting consumer purchasing intent and promoting sales growth for new energy vehicles. ## Market Logic Behind Capital Flow The changes in US stock fund flows on October 9th reflect several key trends in the market: * Technology Rotation: The rotation from training chips to inference chips in the AI hardware sector reflects the evolution of the AI technology stage. * Risk Aversion Sentiment: The continued strength of defensive sectors indicates that investors' risk appetite is becoming more cautious, focusing more on stable returns. * Regional Differentiation: The reversal with strength in Chinese new energy stocks shows the relative advantages of the Chinese market in specific areas. * Policy Impact: The direct impact of government policies on specific sectors is reflected in market reactions. Market analysts suggest that this pattern of capital flow is likely to continue for some time. As AI technology applications deepen, demand for inference chips and edge computing devices is expected to remain strong; simultaneously, the uncertainty facing the global economy will continue to favor defensive sectors. Chinese new energy stocks, however, will benefit from policy support and industrial advantages in the Chinese market, and are expected to maintain relative strength in specific areas. ## Impact on Asia-Pacific Market Opening Sentiment The changes in US stock fund flows on October 9th will have a significant impact on the opening sentiment in the Asia-Pacific market. Historically, US stock fund flows often guide the opening sentiment in the Asia-Pacific market. Specifically, the differentiation within the AI hardware sector may affect the opening of Asia-Pacific semiconductor and technology stocks. Especially Asia-Pacific companies with business ties or competitive relationships with US AI hardware firms may be directly affected by the flow of funds. Meanwhile, the strength of defensive sectors may encourage Asia-Pacific investors to focus more on defensive sectors, such as utilities and consumer staples. The reversal with strength in Chinese new energy stocks may boost the opening performance of the Asia-Pacific new energy vehicle sector. Especially Asia-Pacific companies with business or competitive relationships with Chinese new energy vehicles may be positively affected. Furthermore, policy support from the Chinese market may provide positive catalysts for related companies in the Asia-Pacific new energy chain. The FTSE China A50 Index futures rose slightly by 0.5% during US stock trading sessions, showing a positive reaction from the Asia-Pacific market to the US stock fund flows on October 9th. It is expected that the Asia-Pacific market opening will show a differentiated pattern, with technology and new energy stocks potentially being stronger, while traditional sectors may perform flatly. ## Investment Strategy Recommendations Based on the analysis of US stock fund flows on October 9th, investors can consider the following strategies:

• AI Hardware Sector: Focus on companies related to inference chips and edge computing equipment, avoiding excessive competition in the training chip field
• Defensive Sector: Continue to focus on sectors with stable cash flow, such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare
• China New Energy Vehicles: Seize opportunities from policy support and market demand in the Chinese new energy vehicle industry, focusing on companies with technological advantages
• Asset Allocation: Appropriately increase the proportion of defensive assets while maintaining attention on companies with differentiated advantages in the technology sector

Market analysts remind investors that while paying attention to short-term capital flows, investors should also look at long-term trends. Long-term structural changes such as the evolution of AI technology, the aging population trend, and energy transition will continue to affect the performance of different sectors. Investors should make investment decisions based on fundamental analysis, rather than merely chasing short-term capital flows.

Summary

The US stock fund flows on October 9th showed clear structural characteristics: the AI hardware sector experienced internal divergence, the defensive sector continued to attract funds, and China New Energy Vehicles showed an upward trend driven by financial reports. This new pattern of capital competition reflects changes in current market risk preferences and development trends in specific industries. For the Asia-Pacific market, changes in US stock fund flows may guide opening sentiment, particularly affecting technology stocks, new energy stocks, and defensive sectors differently. Investors should closely monitor the market logic behind these capital flows and make corresponding asset allocation adjustments based on their own risk preferences and investment goals. Looking ahead, with the continuous evolution of AI technology, changes in the global economic situation, and adjustments in the policy environment, US stock fund flows are likely to continue to show structural characteristics. Investors should maintain sensitivity to market dynamics and flexibly adjust investment strategies to seize investment opportunities in different sectors.