US Market Shift: AI Retreat, Defensive Stocks Rise, Chinese EV Stocks Counter-Trend Attraction
On September 27, the US market showed significant fund rotation patterns, with notable divergence within the tech sector. AI hardware板块 continued to experience fund outflows, while defensive sectors became safe havens for capital. Meanwhile, Chinese EV stocks attracted funds against the trend, becoming market highlights. These fund flow changes reflect not only adjustments in market expectations for economic prospects but also reveal shifts in investor risk preferences.
AI Hardware Sector Continues to Cool, Large-Scale Fund Outflows
Overnight, US AI-related sectors performed weakly. NVIDIA (NVDA) stock fell 2.3%, AMD declined 1.8%, while AI chip equipment makers such as Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX) dropped 3.1% and 2.7% respectively. This trend is related to recent adjustments in AI computing demand expectations.
According to market analysts, the fund outflows from the AI hardware sector mainly stem from three factors: First, major cloud service providers have begun adjusting their AI expansion plans, thereby reducing demand for high-end AI chips; Second, market concerns about slower-than-expected AI application implementation have led to downward revisions of computing demand growth expectations; Third, the recent significant gains in the AI hardware sector have been partially reflected in stock prices, with some profit-taking positions closing.
However, it's worth noting that the AI application software sector showed relative resilience, with Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) stocks rising slightly by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, indicating that the market maintains confidence in the long-term prospects of AI commercialization, but capital is beginning to shift from hardware to software.
Defensive Sectors Become Havens, Continuous Fund Inflows
In stark contrast to the AI hardware sector, defensive sectors have become the primary direction for fund inflows. The consumer staples sector rose 1.2%, with Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) increasing by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively; The utilities sector rose 1.8%, with NextEra Energy (NEE) and Duke Energy (DUK) increasing by 2.1% and 1.7% respectively; The healthcare sector rose 1.5%, with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Merck (MRK) increasing by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively.
The strength of defensive sectors mainly reflects growing market concerns about economic prospects. Recently released economic data shows that the US Consumer Confidence Index has declined, and although inflation has eased, it remains at relatively high levels, making investors more inclined to allocate to defensive assets.
Meanwhile, the market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, which puts pressure on growth-oriented tech stocks, while defensive sectors, with their stable cash flows and higher dividend yields, have become investors' preferred choice.
Chinese EV Sector Counter-Trend Attraction, Outstanding Performance
In Chinese concept stocks, the EV sector has become the main direction for fund inflows. Li Auto (LI) stock rose 4.2%, XPeng (XPEV) rose 3.8%, while NIO (NIO) rose 3.5%. This trend is mainly driven by the following factors:
- China's EV export data continues to be strong, with August exports increasing 65% year-on-year, showing the growing competitiveness of Chinese EVs in the global market
- Demand for EVs remains strong in major European markets, especially with extended EV subsidy policies in Germany and France
- Li Auto and NIO respectively reported impressive August delivery data, with Li Auto deliveries up 42% year-on-year and NIO deliveries up 38% year-on-year
- The market expects EV supply chains to benefit from the global carbon reduction trend, particularly in battery and electric system sectors
Meanwhile, other Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba (BABA) and Pinduoduo (PDD) falling 1.2% and 0.8% respectively, while JD.com (JD) rose slightly by 0.5%. This indicates that market selection of Chinese concept stocks has strengthened, with a preference for allocating to fundamentally stronger individual stocks.
Impact of Tech Giants' Earnings on Sector Fund Flows
Recently, tech giants have successively released earnings reports, whose performance has had a significant impact on sector fund flows. Apple (AAPL) stock fell 1.5%, mainly due to iPhone sales falling short of expectations; while Meta Platforms (META) stock rose 2.3%, benefiting from better-than-expected advertising business.
In the cloud services sector, Amazon (AMZN) stock rose 1.8%, with its AWS cloud business revenue growing 18%, exceeding market expectations; Microsoft (MSFT) stock rose slightly by 0.5%, with its Azure cloud business revenue growing 27%, but the growth rate has slightly slowed.
These earnings reports from tech giants show that while the overall tech sector faces challenges, areas such as cloud services and digital advertising continue to show strong growth, which also explains why capital is shifting from AI hardware to AI software and cloud services.
Asia-Pacific Market Opening Sentiment Prediction and Trading Strategies
Based on overnight US performance, the Asia-Pacific market opening may show a divergent pattern. FTSE A50 futures fell 0.3% in overnight trading, indicating a potentially weak opening for the A-share market; while Nikkei 225 futures rose slightly by 0.2%, showing that the Japanese market may be relatively resilient; Hong Kong Hang Seng Index futures fell 0.4%, indicating that Hong Kong stocks may face pressure.
For trading strategies in the Asia-Pacific market, we recommend:
- Defensive sectors: In the current highly uncertain market environment, defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples may continue to attract capital allocation
- EV sector: The performance of Chinese EV stocks may have a positive catalytic effect on related Asia-Pacific EV stocks, especially suppliers in South Korea and Japan
- AI software and cloud services: As capital shifts from AI hardware to software, related Asia-Pacific companies may face opportunities
- Semiconductor equipment: Despite pressure on the AI hardware sector, the semiconductor equipment sector still benefits from the global fab expansion trend
Summary and Outlook
The fund flow changes in the US market on September 27 show that the market is undergoing structural adjustments. The fund outflows from the AI hardware sector do not mean a reversal of the AI trend, but reflect adjustments in market expectations for AI computing demand growth, as well as the shift of capital from hardware to software.
Meanwhile, the strength of defensive sectors reflects growing market concerns about economic prospects, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. The counter-trend strength of the Chinese EV sector shows that in specific areas, Chinese concept stocks still have unique competitive advantages and investment value.
Looking ahead, we expect the market to continue showing a divergent pattern, and investors need to pay more attention to the fundamentals and long-term growth potential of individual stocks, rather than simply chasing market hotspots. At the same time, as the Federal Reserve's policy path gradually becomes clearer, market volatility may intensify, and investors need to manage risks effectively.
For Asia-Pacific market investors, overnight US performance provides valuable reference, but it should be noted that Asia-Pacific markets have their own characteristics and driving factors, and investment decisions need to comprehensively consider local market fundamentals and policy environments.
