Foreign Investors Return to Net Buying Thai Stocks, Inject 27 Billion Baht, With Capital Flows Continuing in the Second Half

Capital Flow Overview: Foreign Investors Turn to Net Buying for the First Time in Three Years

In the first half of this year, foreign investors were net buyers in Thailand's stock market for the first time in three years, with net purchases of about 27 billion baht. The main factor attracting foreign capital was the strong performance of Thai listed companies, whose combined net profit in the first quarter hit a record high.

Analysts expect capital inflows to continue in the second half. Although markets may be volatile due to global interest-rate movements, Thailand still has supportive factors that should gradually draw in foreign funds.

This trend is supported by Thailand's inclination to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, making the gap between equity returns and interest rates relatively attractive compared with many other countries.

Details of Foreign Capital Inflows in the First Half

Foreign capital returned to Thailand's financial markets in the first half of this year after three straight years of net selling. More than 27 billion baht flowed into equities. Analysts believe that although the second half will be affected by global interest-rate trends and may see volatility, Thailand still has supportive factors. They recommend a stock-picking strategy focused on high-dividend stocks, underperformers, and individual names with specific positive catalysts.

Pharadorn Tearnpramote, head of research at Asia Securities, said that overall capital flow in the first half was a positive signal for Thailand's capital market, as foreign investors posted net buying in Thai stocks for the first time in three years after previously accumulating net sales of more than 450 billion baht.

In the first half, foreign investors were net buyers of Thai stocks by about 27 billion baht, or roughly 880 million US dollars. In addition, Thailand was one of only two countries in Asia, alongside Japan, to receive net foreign inflows, while most markets in the region faced foreign selling.

Support Factors for Net-Bought Stocks and the Second-Half Outlook

Capital flows in the first half were influenced by war-related developments and commodity price adjustments, directing foreign funds toward stocks that benefited from higher energy and raw material prices. On the other hand, foreign investors were net sellers of war-affected stocks, as well as early reopening plays; tourism and hospital stocks also came under selling pressure.

Looking ahead to the second half, global equity markets are expected to become more volatile as monetary tightening intensifies, especially since the US Federal Reserve still has a chance of raising rates 2 to 3 more times. However, the Thai stock market still has the potential to receive foreign support because Thailand tends to keep its policy rate unchanged.

Investors are advised to adopt a selective buying strategy, focusing on stocks that have lagged the market, high-dividend stocks, and individual names with specific positive catalysts.

Among bank stocks, TTB is expected to pay a mid-year dividend of about 3%, the highest among major banks, followed by BBL, KBANK and KTB.

For sectors that benefit from an economic rebound, BDMS and BH are recommended, along with hotel stocks CENTEL and ERW, with second- to third-quarter results expected to keep improving.

For investors seeking thematic speculation, water and sugar stocks such as TTW, EASTW and KSL are recommended, benefiting from hot weather and the risk of an El Nino event that could affect agricultural prices and water demand.

Top 10 Foreign Net Buy and Net Sell Stocks (NVDR Data)

According to a Bangkok Business News survey, SET NVDR data show the top 10 stocks with the largest foreign net buying and selling in the first half of 2569, as of 1 July 2569, as follows:

Top 10 Foreign Net-Buy Stocks

1. PTTEP net buy 25,420.47 million baht, average price about 141.70 baht/share

2. KBANK net buy 20,268.37 million baht, average price about 195.35 baht/share

3. PTT net buy 19,096.73 million baht, average price about 35.20 baht/share

4. KTB net buy 6,962.02 million baht, average price about 33.28 baht/share

5. DELTA net buy 6,043.31 million baht, average price about 269.66 baht/share

6. PTTGC net buy 5,555.19 million baht, average price about 31.43 baht/share

7. BBL net buy 5,083.39 million baht, average price about 168.59 baht/share

8. TOP net buy 4,821.75 million baht, average price about 46.68 baht/share

9. CPALL net buy 4,295.36 million baht, average price about 46.73 baht/share

10. AOT net buy 3,807.25 million baht, average price about 53.69 baht/share

Top 10 Foreign Net-Sell Stocks

1. SCB net sell 4,729.52 million baht, average price about 140.27 baht/share

2. CPF net sell 3,517.98 million baht, average price about 19.90 baht/share

3. TISCO net sell 2,058.87 million baht, average price about 113.07 baht/share

4. MINT net sell 1,802.87 million baht, average price about 22.82 baht/share

5. COM7 net sell 1,208.68 million baht, average price about 23.30 baht/share

6. OR net sell 965.30 million baht, average price about 12.89 baht/share

7. BDMS net sell 933.76 million baht, average price about 19.28 baht/share

8. TIDLOR net sell 708.51 million baht, average price about 17.13 baht/share

9. TRUE net sell 531.27 million baht, average price about 13.28 baht/share

10. MTC net sell 448.21 million baht, average price about 30.94 baht/share