On Thursday (August 6), US major indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones ending its five-day rally, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded two consecutive days of decline. Pressure came from two directions: first, geopolitical risks in the Middle East escalated again, with Iran reported to have targeted areas near the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge and suppressing risk appetite; second, as the earnings season approaches its end, some high-valued stocks encountered a stampede after delivering "better-than-expected but guidance-weak" results, with AI application software stocks and storage chip stocks becoming the hardest hit. Today (August 7), US July nonfarm employment data and China trade data will be released simultaneously, and Asia-Pacific markets may continue a divided pattern in early trading.
Overnight US Stocks: Dow's Rally Stopped at Five Days, Tech Giants' Divergence Intensified
At closing, the Dow Jones fell 464.02 points or 0.85%, to 53,885.10 points; the S&P 500 fell 13.59 points or 0.18%, to 7,709.96 points; the Nasdaq fell 15.09 points or 0.06%, to 26,348.35 points. The Dow Jones once fell more than 500 points during the session, mainly dragged down by Salesforce's 3.2% plunge—the company announced a management restructuring, raising concerns about its growth prospects. Additionally, Boeing fell more than 3%, airline stocks weakened across the board, and industrial and cyclical sectors faced significant pressure.
Notably, this correction showed a distinct "structural" characteristic: large-cap tech stocks showed divergent performance, with Microsoft rising 2.54% to $499.86, Apple up 0.45%, Meta up 0.19%, while NVIDIA fell 0.10%, Amazon down 0.14%, Tesla down 0.63%, and Google down nearly 1%. The "Magnificent Seven" as a whole had limited losses, indicating that funds were not completely leaving the tech sector but were rapidly rotating between individual stocks, chasing targets with more certain profitability.
Cracks at the End of Earnings Season: AI Application Stocks Stampede, Storage Chips Plunge
The real selling pressure was concentrated in two areas. First, AI application software stocks: AppLovin plummeted 19.7% in a single day due to mixed second-quarter results and weaker-than-expected third-quarter guidance; Datadog fell 19%, Epam Systems fell more than 15%, and Axon Enterprise fell more than 14%, dragging down the entire SaaS and AI application sector. Second, storage chip stocks: Western Digital (WDC) plunged more than 13%, disappointing investors with its first-quarter guidance; SanDisk fell nearly 7%, SK Hynix fell nearly 5%, and Micron also fell more than 1%.
This reflects the market's changing valuation logic: after extreme performance where SanDisk surged about 30 times and Western Digital rose more than 5 times in the past 12 months, investors have shifted from "any AI-related stock rises" to demanding sustainable growth. Market participants from the Chicago Options Exchange pointed out that better-than-expected profits and sales, accompanied by weak forward guidance, do not necessarily push up stock prices, and some profit-taking is occurring. In other words, the "good news is out" stampede has become a normalized risk for high-valued sectors.
Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector as a whole showed a divergent rebound: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.3%, with AMD up 1.5%. On the news front, Musk publicly stated that SpaceX's AI infrastructure "only uses NVIDIA", which once put pressure on AMD, but NVIDIA also ended its five-day rally this week, with market attention now focused on NVIDIA's earnings report to be released on August 26, whether data center revenue can exceed $40 billion will be the key validation point for the next stage of the AI narrative. Another highlight was SpaceX: on the day when the first 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked, its stock price rose more than 6% instead of falling, with trading volume hitting a one-and-a-half-month high, indicating that short-covering pressure was greater than actual selling.
Oil Prices and US Treasuries: Geopolitical Risks Rekindled, Yield Curve Steepening
Commodities and bonds were another main theme of yesterday's market. Influenced by Iran and Oman's negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz passage conditions—according to reports, the draft agreement proposes banning US and Israeli ships from using the key waterway—international oil prices rose significantly: WTI September crude futures rose 2.75% to close at $77.29/barrel, Brent October crude futures surged 3.83% to close at $82.49/barrel, with intraday gains once exceeding 5%. Energy stocks all closed higher, with Occidental Petroleum up 4.2% and ExxonMobil up more than 2%.
In the bond market, after news of Iran targeting areas near the Strait, the 10-year US Treasury yield refreshed its intraday high, closing at about 4.68%, up about 6 basis points for the day; the 2-year US Treasury yield rose to about 4.25%, up about 7 basis points. Alphabet launched a $25 billion debt issuance plan, reportedly receiving more than four times oversubscription, further pushing up long-term yields and curve steepening. The dollar index rebounded, continuing its move away from a one-month low; offshore RMB once broke through 6.75, approaching a three-year high, before retreating. Gold rose more than 1% intraday before turning lower, with COMEX gold futures closing down 0.15% at $4,298.70/ounce.
Asia-Pacific Outlook: FTSE A50 Night Session Stable, Hang Seng Opens Lower, Japan and Korea Each Have Concerns
The transmission of external market conditions to Asia-Pacific was relatively moderate. FTSE A50 index futures rose 0.03% in consecutive night sessions to 14,938 points, basically flat, suggesting that A-share early trading may continue a volatile pattern; offshore RMB night session closed at 6.7517 yuan, down 22 points slightly. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index, after falling more than 520 points yesterday, opened 3 points lower today at 25,526 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index opened 0.26% higher, showing that the tech sector has technical rebound demand. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.93% yesterday to close at 65,683 points, while the Korean stock market is deeply mired in a single-stock leveraged ETF regulatory storm, with the Financial Committee Chairman and Presidential Policy Office Director successively criminally reported, market sentiment is under pressure, and SK Hynix even once hit a 30% down limit circuit breaker before the market opened, with related risks needing key prevention.
Today's Highlights and Trading Strategy: Nonfarm Data Sets Tone for Tightening Expectations
Pre-market focus today is clear: US July nonfarm employment data will be released tonight, with the market closely watching its impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. According to foreign media reports, if inflation data remains strong in the coming weeks, Fed Chair Powell may be prepared to raise rates in September, and he has proposed reducing the number of Fed meetings per year, which if implemented would break a 40-year precedent and increase bond market volatility. In China, July trade balance, import and export data, and foreign exchange reserves will also be released today, with RMB exchange rates and foreign capital flows worth tracking.
Overall, the current market is in a stage of triple叠加 of "earnings season profit-taking + geopolitical risks rekindled + policy uncertainty." For Asia-Pacific investors, early trading strategies should focus on defense: on one hand, pay attention to the boost of rising oil prices to energy and oil service sectors; on the other hand, beware of the spillover effect of high-valued AI software stocks' earnings risk. If nonfarm data is weaker than expected, it may strengthen rate cut expectations and benefit growth stocks; if it's stronger than expected, prevention of tightening expectations' rise to global risk assets is needed. As short-term volatility intensifies, maintaining position flexibility and closely watching earnings guidance and macro data may be more stable than betting on a single direction.
